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今年の梅雨明け 前線消滅型?

18日は九州から東海まで一斉に梅雨明け!暑い海の日に。でも、今年の梅雨明けパターンは前線消滅型。「梅雨明け10日」とはならないかも。今後の天気の見通しを解説。 ●梅雨明けパターンは大きく2つ!今年は? 18日は九州から東海まで一斉に梅雨明けとなりました。梅雨明けのパターンは大きくわけると2つ。もっとも多いのが、夏の高気圧がググッと強まり前線を押し上げる「前線北上型」。(図の左側)このパターンは「梅雨明け10日」といわれるように、安定した夏空と厳しい暑さが続きます。一方、もう一つのパターンは「前線消滅型」。(図の右側)前線は、2つの性質の違う気団の間にできます。前線の北側が冷たい空気、南側が暖かい空気ですが、前線の北側の空気が暖まると境界線が不明瞭に。つまり前線が弱まり、消滅。梅雨明けとなります。「消滅型」の場合は、梅雨明け後も夏空が続かず、雲の広がることがあります。今年は上の図の右側、「消滅型」パターンです。 ●「前線消滅型」の天気傾向は? あす19日の予想天気図をみると、前線は大陸でとぎれ日本付近には前線はありません。これは日本の南の高気圧があまり強くなく、逆に北のオホーツク海高気圧が暖まり前線が不明瞭(消滅)しているからです。無理やり前線を書こうとすると、黄色い点線が潜在的な前線となります。今年のように梅雨前線の活動が弱まり(消滅)して梅雨が明ける場合は、梅雨明け後も安定した晴天は続かず、雲の広がることがあります。 ●関東甲信の梅雨明けは? この先の週間予報をみてみますと、梅雨明けした九州から東海の晴れマークも「梅雨明け10日」とはならず、「梅雨明け3日ないし4日」といった感じです。関東から北では太平洋側を中心に北のオホーツク海高気圧の影響で雲が広がりやすく、東京は30度以上の真夏日の日は少ない見込みです。関東甲信地方の梅雨明けの平年は7月21日ごろですが、今年は予想・判断が難しいパターンとなりそう。ただ、週間予報でガラッと変わる可能性もありますので、この先も天気予報をこまめにチェックお願いします。

たくさんのご来場、
ありがとうございました。

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