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ラニーニャ現象の発生は秋の終盤か

気象庁は10日、エルニーニョ監視速報を発表。エルニーニョ現象もラニーニャ現象も発生していない平常の状態が続いていると見られ、今後、秋の終わりまでにはラニーニャ現象が発生する可能性が高くなっています。 ●7月の実況と見通し エルニーニョ現象もラニーニャ現象も発生していない平常の状態が続いていると見られます。7月のエルニーニョ監視海域の海面水温の基準値との差は、-0.6度で基準値より低い値でした。太平洋赤道域の日付変更線付近の対流活動は平年より不活発で、大気下層の東風(貿易風)は、中部で平年より強くなりました。このような海洋や大気の状態は、ラニーニャ現象の発生が近いことを示していますが、東部太平洋赤道域の海面水温の変化は緩やかであることから、ラニーニャ現象の発生が近いことを示していますが、ラニーニャ現象の発生には至っていないと判断されました。 当初は、夏の間にラニーニャ現象が発生する予測が出ていましたが、ラニーニャ現象の発生が秋の終わりまでにずれ込む可能性が出てきました。 ●ラニーニャ現象とは 太平洋赤道域の中部(日付変更線付近)から南米のペルー沖にかけての広い海域で、海面水温が平年に比べて低くなり、その状態が1年程度続く現象です。ラニーニャ現象が発生すると、日本を含め世界中で異常な天候が起こると考えられています。 ●ラニーニャ現象発生の定義 気象庁では、エルニーニョ監視海域の海面水温の 基準値との差の 5か月移動平均値が6か月以上続けて +0.5℃以上となった場合を「エルニーニョ現象」、−0.5℃以下となった場合を「ラニーニャ現象」と定義しています。 エルニーニョ現象やラニーニャ現象は、日本の天候に大きく影響するとみられることから、気象庁は熱帯域の海洋変動を監視し、毎月1回、10日頃にその状況を発表しています。

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