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台風が勢力を保って接近・上陸の恐れ

迷走している台風10号に新たな動きがでてきました。このあと日本の南を東寄りに進み、月曜日から火曜日にかけて本州に接近・上陸する可能性があります。 ●台風はさらに発達する 台風10号は、26日正午現在、南大東島の南およそ300キロに位置しています。この台風は勢力が「非常に強い」となっていますが、日本の南の海上は海水温が高いため、今後さらに発達する見込みです。 ●気になる進路 ここ数日、南大東島近海でウロウロとほぼ停滞していていましたが、ゆっくり東へ進み始めています。冒頭の台風進路図を見ると、台風は次第にスピードを上げて、29日(月)には小笠原近海まで進んでいます。30日の予報円は近畿から東北まで広い範囲を覆っていて、進路が定まっていないことがわかります。台風の中心が、この予報円に入る確率はおよそ70%で、予報円内に台風が進めば、本州に上陸する恐れがあります。なお、台風の進路あたる海域では海水温が高いため、勢力があまり衰えないまま本州へ近づく可能性があります。 ●台風が近づく前から注意 現在、日本海には寒冷前線、沿海州上空には寒気を伴った気圧の谷があります。そのため、西日本では台風が近づく前の日曜日頃から強い雨が降り始める見込みです。特に中国や四国では、台風周辺からの南よりの風と、寒気を伴った気圧の谷から吹き込む北より風がぶつかって、月曜日にかけて活発な雨雲が長く停滞し、災害が発生する恐れもあります。 ●台風近づき関東直撃も 再び予報円を見ると、台風が予報円の中心を通ると仮定した場合、関東は30日に直撃することになります(雨は29日の午後から強まっています)。関東では8月ひと月分の雨が、たった1日で降ってしまう可能性があります。また、台風は現在に比べて強風域が大きくなる予想で、接近時を中心に影響が長引く可能性があります。台風が日本海に抜けた後も、南西の強い風がしばらく続くでしょう。先日の台風9号の影響もあって災害が発生しやすい状況の所もあります。土砂災害や低い土地の浸水、川の氾濫、暴風などに厳重な警戒が必要です。 (日本気象協会 気象予報士 木村健一)

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