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台風シーズンはそろそろ終わり?

きのう(13日)、フィリピンの東で台風21号「サリカー」が発生しました。「また台風が発生したの?」「日本に来ないよね?」などウンザリしている人も多い台風ですが、今後の進路予報を見てみましょう。 ●台風21号は西へ 14日午前9時、フィリピンの東海上を西へ進んでいる台風21号は、今後も西へと進み、あすには「強い台風」に発達する見込みです。その後も西へと進んで19日には大陸へとかなり近づき上陸するおそれがあります。今のところ台風による日本への影響はほとんどなさそうです。 そういえば、今月初めに日本へ近づいた台風18号以来、19、20号は日本から離れた所を進んで低気圧へと変わりました。そして今回の21号も日本への影響はほとんどなさそう・・・そろそろ台風シーズンは終わりなのでしょうか? ここで、台風の月別の主な進路を見てみましょう。 台風は春先は低緯度で発生して、西へ進んでフィリピン方面に向かうことが多くなります。夏になると次第に、太平洋高気圧の縁を回って日本へ向かう台風が増えていきます。8月、9月になると接近、上陸する台風が多く、太平洋高気圧の勢力が弱まるにつれて日本から離れたコースを通る台風が増えていきます。これを見ると、10月以降は日本から離れた所を進むので「もう台風シーズンは終わった!」と思う人も多いのですが、平年の日本への接近数は・・・ 10月は1.5個、11月は0.6個、12月は0.1個と、まだ台風が近づく可能性はあるのです。 ※接近とは・・・台風の中心が国内のいずれかの気象官署等から300キロ以内に入った場合のことです。 「少ないとは言え、まだ近づくのか・・・」とガッカリしたところで申し訳ありませんが、まだ上陸するおそれもあります。 平年の月別の上陸数を見ると・・・ 10月は0.2個、11月は0.0個です。 ※上陸とは・・・台風の中心が北海道、本州、四国、九州海岸線に達した場合のことです。 どちらも数字が小さく、11月は0個ではないの?と思うかもしれませんが、1990年は11月になってから日本に上陸した台風があるので、全くないということはないのです。 平年の数字を見ると台風の接近数、上陸数ともに少なくなりますが、少ないながら可能性は残っています。 安心できるのはまだ先になりそうです。

たくさんのご来場、
ありがとうございました。

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