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札幌まつりのジンクス

14日火曜日から札幌では北海道神宮例大祭、通称「札幌まつり」がスタートしました。 16日まで行われる祭りで、北海道神宮や市内の中島公園で屋台が出されたりもします。 札幌市民にはおなじみの祭りですが、この札幌まつりについて昔から言われている天気のジンクスがあります。 それは、「さんきちさんと札幌まつりは天気が逆になる」というもの。 「さんきちさん」とは、同じく札幌でおなじみの祭り、三吉神社例大祭の通称。 このさんきちさんで雨が降れば札幌まつりは晴れて、 逆にさんきちさんが晴れれば札幌まつりは雨が降る、というジンクスです。 本当に天気が逆になるのか、過去のデータで振り返って調べてみました。 ●的中率は5分5分? 過去30年分の、それぞれの例祭の日 (三吉神社例大祭5月15日と北海道神宮例大祭6月15日)に 雨が降ったか降らなかったかで見てみると… 逆になったケースが16回、同じ天気になったケースが14回。 ほぼ5分5分でした。 はっきり当たっているとは言い難い的中率ですが、 実は、2004年~2006年と1997年~1999年は3年連続で、 1991年~1994年は4年連続で天気が逆になっていました。 頻繁に何年も続けて当てはまったケースがあったことになります。 (当然、何年も続けて外れているケースもありますが…) このように、続けて当てはまることが多かったために、 逆になるというジンクスが生まれたのではないでしょうか。 ちなみに今年はさんきちさん、札幌まつりともに、例祭の日に雨は降りませんでした。

たくさんのご来場、
ありがとうございました。

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