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台風12号 進路のカギは風と高気圧

台風12号は、4日(日)に九州へかなり接近したあと、上陸する恐れがあります。そのあとの進路が気になりますが、カギを握るのは上空の強い風と高気圧になりそうです。 ●台風、土日は九州直撃か 強い台風12号は、2日午後3時現在、奄美大島の南東海上およそ190キロにあります。自転車くらいのスピードで北へ進んでいます。今後、発達しながら北上を続け、強い勢力で3~4日に九州にかなり接近・上陸の恐れがあります。九州では3日~4日にかけて大荒れの天気になる可能性があり、例えば、鹿児島市は二日間で、9月ひと月分の2倍近い雨が、一気に降ってしまうかもしれません。また、看板が落下したり、走行中のトラックが横転してしまうほどの暴風が吹き荒れそうです。大雨や土砂災害、川の増水や氾濫に加えて、暴風やウネリを伴った高波に警戒が必要です。 ●その後の進路 台風は九州に影響を及ばしたあとは、予報円が大きいため、どこに進むが定まっていません。仮に予報円の中心を通るなら、5日に山陰沖に抜けて、日本海で進路を再び北へ変える予想です。そうなると、先月、相次ぐ台風の上陸・接近によって甚大な被害がでてしまった北海道や東北にも近づく可能性も考えられます。最新の気象情報・台風情報をこまめにご確認ください。 ●台風の進路は他力本願 台風は自分自身では前へ進めません。日本付近へ近づくと、上空の強い風に乗ったり、高気圧の縁をまわって進むなど、“他力本願”なのです。上のイメージ図を見ると4日は高気圧が北海道から中国・四国付近まで覆っています。ですから、高気圧の縁をまわって九州を北上します。また、スピードも遅いです。5日以降は、高気圧がやや衰えて、且つ上空の強い風のエリアも日本付近へ南下してきそうですので、この風に乗ってスピードを上げ、日本海へ進みそうです。

たくさんのご来場、
ありがとうございました。

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