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ラニーニャ現象発生 冬にかけて続く

気象庁は9日、エルニーニョ監視速報を発表。ラニーニャ現象が発生しているとみられ、今後、冬にかけてもラニーニャ現象が続く可能性が高くなっています。 ●8月の実況と見通し 【8月の実況】 8月のエルニーニョ監視海域の海面水温の基準値との差は-0.6℃で基準値より低い値でした。太平洋赤道域の海面水温は中部から東部にかけて平年より低く、西部で平年より高くなりました。海洋表層の水温は西部から東部にかけてのほぼ全域で平年より低くなりました。太平洋赤道域の日付変更線付近の対流活動は平年より不活発で、大気下層の東風(貿易風)は中部で平年より強くなりました。このような海洋と大気の状態は7月から持続しており、ラニーニャ現象時の特徴を示しています。今後もこうした特徴が持続すると見込まれており、ラニーニャ現象が発生しているとみられます。 なお、8月の日本と世界の天候はラニーニャ現象時の特徴は明瞭にはみられませんでした。 【今後の見通し】 今後、冬にかけてラニーニャ現象が続く可能性が高く(70%)なっています。エルニーニョ予測モデルはエルニーニョ監視海域の海面水温が予測期間中、基準値に近い値か、低い値で推移し、基準値との差の5か月移動平均値は今後、冬にかけて-0.5℃以下の値で推移すると予測しています。 ●ラニーニャ現象とは 太平洋赤道域の中部(日付変更線付近)から南米のペルー沖にかけての広い海域で、海面水温が平年に比べて低くなり、その状態が1年程度続く現象です。ラニーニャ現象が発生すると、日本を含め世界中で異常な天候が起こると考えられています。 ●ラニーニャ現象発生の定義 気象庁では、エルニーニョ監視海域の海面水温の 基準値との差の 5か月移動平均値が6か月以上続けて +0.5℃以上となった場合を「エルニーニョ現象」、−0.5℃以下となった場合を「ラニーニャ現象」と定義しています。 エルニーニョ現象やラニーニャ現象は、日本の天候に大きく影響するとみられることから、気象庁は熱帯域の海洋変動を監視し、毎月1回、10日頃にその状況を発表しています。

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