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富士山に笠雲 最高の的中率

8日(土)の昼頃、富士山に笠雲がかかりました。「富士山がカサをかぶれば近いうちに雨」は的中率が高い天気のことわざの一つ。24時間後までに雨になる確率は70%以上です。 ●どうして笠雲ができるのか?? 山にかかる雲は観天望気(かんてんぼうき)の良い指標になります。 観天望気とは、雲や風など大気の状態を観測して天気を予測することです。 きょう(8日:土曜)の昼頃に、富士山に「笠雲」がかかりました。 写真は山梨県河口湖町で撮影したものです。「笠雲」は山の上に傘をかぶったような形で発生する雲です。 「富士山が笠をかぶれば近いうちに雨」という天気俚諺(天気のことわざ)があります。 多くの天気俚諺の中でも、この言い伝えは最高の的中率を誇っています。 季節によって的中率がやや変わりますが、秋(まさにいま)と春が一番的中率が高く78%。夏は75%、冬は70%といわれています。 富士山には周囲に高い山がないため、山越えの気流によって様々な笠雲ができます。 笠雲は富士山の山頂で静かに止まっているように見えますが、 実は笠雲が発生している時の上層の風は強く、雲が発生したり消えたりを繰り返しています。 水蒸気を多く含んだ強い風が富士山の山肌に沿うようにして上昇気流が起き、山頂で雲が発生。 一方、風下側の斜面では下降気流となって雲の粒が消えていく・・・。 このように発生と消失を絶え間なく繰り返していることで、まるで静止しているかのように見えるのです。 ●果たして的中率通りになるのか?? 笠雲がかかっているということは低気圧や前線が近づいて、日本付近に暖かく湿った空気が流れ込んでいるということ。 きょう(8日:土曜)も日本海には前線を伴った低気圧があり、東北北部や北海道付近へ進んでいます。 低気圧や前線に向かうような形で、全国の広い範囲に暖かく湿った空気が流れ込んでいます。 所々で雨雲が発達し、激しい雨が降っています。 写真を撮影した山梨県の富士五湖周辺ではきょう(8日:土曜)の午後3時現在、日差しが出ています。 ただ、次第に天気は下り坂で、あす(9日:日曜)の朝は雨が降る見込みです。 長く降り続く雨ではなさそうですが、「富士山がカサをかぶれば近いうちに雨」は的中しそうです。

たくさんのご来場、
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