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ラニーニャ現象 続く可能性が高い

気象庁は10日、エルニーニョ監視速報を発表しました。現在、ラニーニャ現象が発生しているとみられ、今後も続く可能性が高いと予測されます。 ●10月の実況と見通し 【10月の実況】 10月のエルニーニョ監視海域の海面水温の基準値との差は-0.5度で、基準値よりも低い値になりました。太平洋赤道域の海面水温は、中部から東部で平年より低く、西部で平年よりも高くなりました。海洋表層の水温は、中部から東部にかけて平年より低くなりました。太平洋赤道域の日付変更線付近の対流活動は平年より不活発となり、大気下層の東風(貿易風)は中部で平年より強くなりました。このような大気と海洋の状態は、ラニーニャ現象時の特徴を示しています。また、今後もこうした特徴が持続すると見込まれます。以上のことから、ラニーニャ現象が発生しているとみられます。 日本では、西日本と沖縄・奄美の高温および西日本の寡照にはラニーニャ現象が一部影響していたとみられます。また、世界では、米国東部の高温がラニーニャ現象時の特徴に一致していました。 【今後の見通し】 今後冬にかけては、平常の状態になる可能性もあります(40%)が、ラニーニャ現象が続く可能性の方がより高く(60%)なっています。海洋表層の冷水は7月以降中部に見られ、9月に比べて10月にはやや強まりました。この冷水は今後しばらくの間、中部の海面水温を平年より低い状態で維持するように働くと考えられます。エルニーニョ予測モデルは、エルニーニョ監視海域の海面水温が、今後冬にかけて基準値に近い値か基準値より低い値で推移して、春には基準値に近づくと予測しています。以上のことから、今後冬にかけては、平常の状態になる可能性もあります(40%)が、ラニーニャ現象が続く可能性の方がより高い(60%)と予測されます。 ●ラニーニャ現象とは? 太平洋赤道域の中部(日付変更線付近)から南米のペルー沖にかけての広い海域で、海面水温が平年に比べて低くなり、その状態が1年程度続く現象です。ラニーニャ現象が発生すると、日本を含め世界中で異常な天候が起こると考えられています。 ●ラニーニャ現象発生の定義 気象庁では、エルニーニョ監視海域の海面水温の 基準値との差の 5か月移動平均値が6か月以上続けて +0.5℃以上となった場合を「エルニーニョ現象」、−0.5℃以下となった場合を「ラニーニャ現象」と定義しています。 エルニーニョ現象やラニーニャ現象は、日本の天候に大きく影響するとみられることから、気象庁は熱帯域の海洋変動を監視し、毎月1回、10日頃にその状況を発表しています。

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