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南岸低気圧がジワリ 関東は雨か雪

8日から9日にかけて、日本の南を低気圧が東へ進みます。関東は雨が主体ですが、山沿いや内陸は雪の所も。 ●西からジワリ 7日は、本州付近は高気圧に覆われ、北海道から中国・四国まで晴れる所が多いでしょう。一方、東シナ海から南西諸島には前線が延びます。この影響で、沖縄は曇り。九州南部は昼過ぎから次第に雨が降り始めるでしょう。雨の範囲は8日になると少しずつ東へ広がっていきそうです。 ●低気圧発生 8日は、前線上に低気圧が発生し、夜には伊豆諸島の南まで進むでしょう。いわゆる南岸低気圧です。九州は朝から雨で、次第に中国・四国、近畿と雨雲がかかるでしょう。関東は夕方から南部で弱い雨が降り始め、夜は北部も含めて、しっかりした雨となりそうです。雨は9日の昼前まで続くでしょう。南岸低気圧の時に、関東では度々まとまった雪になることがありますが、今のところ平野部は気温が高く、雨が主体の予想です。雪の降る可能性があるのは栃木から群馬の山沿いや秩父などになりそうです。 ●関東平野で雪が降るケース 関東平野で雪が降る目安として、まず低気圧の通るコースですが、低気圧が八丈島から鳥島付近の間を通過する時に可能性が高いと言われています。それより北で、関東の南岸に近いコースの時は、低気圧によって運ばれる暖かい空気で、雨になることが多くなります。逆に鳥島より南だと、雨や雪が降らないことが多くなるのです。続いて気温の目安は、上空1500メートル付近で氷点下3度以下。地上では2~3度以下となります(みぞれも含む)。その条件を満たしたのが、昨年の11月24日。南岸低気圧によって関東平野で雪が降りました。ちなみに東京で雪が降る場合、まず低気圧によって鹿島灘付近からの冷たい北東風が陸地に入ります。さらに、秩父周辺など内陸で冷やされた空気が、北西風となって吹き込みます。こうして、さらに気温が下がり、雪になります。そのため、南岸低気圧により東京で雪が降る時は、風向は北西から北北西であることが多いです。

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