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札幌の根雪終日 遅れるのは確実?

札幌では先週の大雪の影響で積雪がかなり増え、今日(26日)の最深積雪は54センチとなっていますが、過去を振り返ると、3月26日時点で50センチ以上の雪が残っていた場合、根雪の終日が平年より早く来ることは統計開始以来1度もありませんでした。今年の雪もそうなるのでしょうか? ●過去のデータでは確実に遅れる 札幌では先週23日、24日の2日間で合計36センチの雪が降り、積雪は24日の午前6時に71センチまで増えました。 昨日(25日)、今日(26日)と雪解けは進み、今日の午後5時の時点で49センチまで積雪は減りましたが、午前中は50センチ以上の積雪がまだ観測されていました。 日々の積雪のデータが残る1953年以降、3月26日の時点で50センチ以上の積雪があった年は計16年ありますが、そのすべての年で根雪終日は平年の4月3日よりも遅くなっています。(最も早かったのは1986年の4月4日) ●一週間でなくなる可能性も 過去の例からすると、平年より遅い根雪終日となるのは確実と言えそうですが、早まる可能性はないのでしょうか? 根雪終日の平年である4月3日まではあと8日ですが、実は、過去2回だけ50センチの雪が一週間以内に解けたことがあるのです。1970年は4月4日からの1週間で、1999年は4月8日から12日のわずか5日で50センチの雪がなくなり、根雪終日を迎えました。 それぞれの年の天気を見ると、1999年は最高気温15度以上の日が5日中2日もあるなど、まだ3月のこの時期には難しいほど高い気温になっていました。一方、1970年は7日とも5度以上にはなりましたが、10度以上はわずか1日と、極端な暖かさはありませんでした。 ●今年の予報は? 今年の札幌の予報を見ると、明日以降は、毎日、予想最高気温は5度以上で、10度以上の日も1日あり、傾向としては1970年の天気によく似ています。冷え込みがあまり強くなく、雨が降る日もあるなど、その他の雪解けの要素もそろっており、今年は3月26日に50センチあった雪が、史上初めて根雪終日の平年より早く解けてくれるかもしれません。

たくさんのご来場、
ありがとうございました。

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